Forecasting emergency department arrivals using INGARCH models

Abstract

Background Forecasting patient arrivals to hospital emergency departments is critical to dealing with surges and to efficient planning, management and functioning of hospital emerency departments.

Objective We explore whether past mean values and past observations are useful to forecast daily patient arrivals in an Emergency Department.

Material and methods We examine whether an integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (INGARCH) model can yield a better conditional distribution fit and forecast of patient arrivals by using past arrival information and taking into account the dynamics of the volatility of arrivals.

Results We document that INGARCH models improve both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts, particularly in the lower and upper quantiles of the distribution of arrivals.

Conclusion Our results suggest that INGARCH modelling is a useful model for short-term and tactical emergency department planning, e.g., to assign rotas or locate staff for unexpected surges in patient arrivals.