Assessing the potential of short-rotation poplar plantations for a low-carbon bioeconomy: modelling sustainable lignocellulosic biomass and carbon stocks under water-limited conditions

Abstract

This thesis has a dual objective: improving climate-sensitive biomass predictions for these particular plantation systems in response to water restrictions and promoting awareness of their economic viability and ecosystem services. This study aims to improve the 3-PG model (Physiological Principles Predicting Growth) estimation for poplar SRC systems, not only by determining the required species-specific parameters, mainly from observed data, but also by further adapting the model architecture to these specific plantations. The response of plantation to irrigation restriction on the 3-PG model parameters were also considered. Additionally, the study includes an economic analysis, addressing cost factors associated with plantation management and establishment, along with uncertainties related to discount rates, biomass and C market prices.