Spatial and temporal expansion of global wildland fire activity in response to climate change

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URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10347/30139
E-ISSN: 2041-1723
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28835-2

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2022

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Springer Nature LTD
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Global warming is expected to alter wildfire potential and fire season severity, but the magnitude and location of change is still unclear. Here, we show that climate largely determines present fire-prone regions and their fire season. We categorize these regions according to the climatic characteristics of their fire season into four classes, within general Boreal, Temperate, Tropical and Arid climate zones. Based on climate model projections, we assess the modification of the fire-prone regions in extent and fire season length at the end of the 21st century. We find that due to global warming, the global area with frequent fire-prone conditions would increase by 29%, mostly in Boreal (+111%) and Temperate (+25%) zones, where there may also be a significant lengthening of the potential fire season. Our estimates of the global expansion of fire-prone areas highlight the large but uneven impact of a warming climate on Earth’s environment

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Atmospheric science| Fire ecology| Projection and prediction

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Senande-Rivera, M., Insua-Costa, D. & Miguez-Macho, G. Spatial and temporal expansion of global wildland fire activity in response to climate change. Nat Commun 13, 1208 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28835-2

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Funding comes from the Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad OPERMO (CGL2017-89859-R) and the CRETUS strategic partnership (AGRUP2015/02). All these programs are co-funded by the European Union ERDF. M.S.R. acknowledges Xunta de Galicia for a predoctoral grant (Programa de axudas á etapa predoutoral 2019, ED481A-2019/112). D.I.C. was awarded a pre-doctoral FPI (PRE2018-084425) grant from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities

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© 2022 The Authors. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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