Diabetes risk assessment in adult population without diabetes employing continuous glucose monitoring: A novel approach

Abstract

Aims Time above range obtained through continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) is a useful marker for identifying individuals at higher risk of developing diabetes. We aimed to determine the optimal cutoff for the percentage of time glucose exceeds a threshold to predict diabetes onset. Methods Prospective observational study involving CGM in individuals without diabetes. Individuals who completed CGM and were not diagnosed with diabetes at baseline were followed for a median of 10.8 years. Results Among 513 individuals (median age: 46; range: 18–82), 42 developed diabetes during follow-up. Individuals who developed diabetes were older (median age [IQR]: 53 [45–63] vs. 45 [35–57] years; p < 0.001) and had a higher BMI (32.2 [28.9–35.2] vs. 26.8 [23.8–30.3] kg/m2; p < 0.001) compared to those who did not. The most significant differences between those who developed diabetes and those who did not were observed when we set a cutoff of ≥ 130 mg/dL for at least 10 % of monitoring time. Conclusions CGM provides highly useful information for predicting type 2 diabetes. In healthy individuals, exhibiting glucose levels at or above 130 mg/dL for over 10 % of the time over at least two monitoring days show a higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes.