Spanish recessions 1850–2023: A business cycle accounting analysis

Abstract

This paper quantitatively analyzes six major recessions in the Spanish economy between 1850 and 2023 using an accounting framework that decomposes deviations from trend into structural components. The results identify two types of recessions: those driven by labour-aumenting efficiency—such as the fin de siècle Depression and the Great Depression—and those primarily shaped by the household labour wedge—namely, the Great Stagflation, European Recession, Great Recession, and the covid-19 crisis. Tax dynamics played a key role in the Great Stagflation, but not in the more recent crises. Openness and employment composition are informative about labour-aumenting efficiency trend, while institutional labour market features — such as temporary contracts and unemployment benefits — are closely linked to the household labour wedge. The analysis confirms the growing relevance of the household labour wedge in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Spain, even when accounting for a stochastic downward trend in hours worked.