Semenza, Jan C.Triñanes Fernández, Joaquín ÁngelLohr, WolfgangSudre, BertrandLöfdahl, MargaretaMartínez Urtaza, Jaime LuisNichols, Gordon L.Rocklöv, Joacim2020-05-142020-05-142017Semenza, J. C., Trinanes, J., Lohr, W., Sudre, B., Löfdahl, M., Martinez-Urtaza, J., ... and Rocklöv, J. (2017). Environmental suitability of Vibrio infections in a warming climate: an early warning system. Environmental health perspectives, 125(10), 107004.https://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp21980091-6765http://hdl.handle.net/10347/22293Background: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). Objectives: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. Methods: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Results: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure–response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16°C revealed a relative risk (RR)=1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. Conclusions: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2198eng© The Author(s) 2017. Open Access. This article is in the public domain and may be freely shared or re-distributed without permission of the authors or EHPVibrio infectionsClimate changeMarine environmentsPublic healthBaltic Seajournal article10.1289/ehp21981552-9924open access