RT Journal Article
T1 Attribution of the unprecedented heat event of August 2023 in Barcelona (Spain) to observed and projected global warming
A1 Lemus-Canovas, Marc
A1 Montesinos-Ciuró, Eduard
A1 Cearreta Innocenti, Tania
A1 Serrano Notivoli, Roberto
A1 Royé, Dominic
K1 Extreme event attribution
K1 Heatwave
K1 Urban climate
K1 Global warming
K1 Barcelona
AB The study analyses observed and numerical simulations of daily maximum and minimum temperature from 1920 onwards and to investigate the unprecedented heat event that occurred in 21–23 August 2023 in Barcelona. The historical changes in the intensity of such events, their expected future changes under scenarios of +1.5 °C, +2 °C, and + 3 °C, and the future exposure of populations to such kind of events are examined using the flow analogues approach. The findings indicate a significant increase in observed temperatures for similar heatwaves to those occurred in August 2023. The study also emphasises the impact of global warming on the intensification of heat events over the impact of urbanization. Additionally, after examining the role of natural variability in temperature changes, we concluded that global warming is the primary factor driving the increase in heatwave intensity. In terms of the frequency of such events, we found that extreme heat events, such as the August 2023 heatwave, will become 2 and 5 times more likely with a global summer warming of 2 °C and 3 °C, respectively. This will expose a large portion of the population to dangerous heat levels highlighting the importance of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C to mitigate the impacts on urban populations.
PB Elsevier
SN 2212-0955
YR 2024
FD 2024
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10347/34928
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10347/34928
LA eng
NO Urban Climate Volume 56 , July 2024, 102019
NO This work is addressed in the framework of the ATOC project funded by the Barcelona City Council (Ref. 22S09371-001). M.L.-C. is supported by a postdoctoral contract from the programme named “Programa de axudas de apoio á etapa inicial de formación posdoutoral (2022)” funded by Xunta de Galicia (Government of Galicia, Spain). Reference number: ED481B-2022-055. E. M.-C. is supported by a postdoctoral contract from the programme “Ayuda para la recualificación del sistema universitario español para 2021-2023, modalidad Margarita Salas” funded by the Ministry of Universities of Spain. R.S-N is supported by grant RYC2021-034330-I funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/50110 0 011033 and by “European Union NextGenerationEU/PRTR”.
DS Minerva
RD 23 abr 2026