RT Journal Article
T1 Modeling and Mapping Forest Fire Occurrence from Aboveground Carbon Density in Mexico
A1 Briones Herrera, Carlos Iván
A1 Vega Nieva, Daniel José
A1 Monjarás Vega, Norma Angélica
A1 Flores Medina, Favián
A1 López Serrano, Pablito Marcelo
A1 Corral Rivas, José Javier
A1 Carrillo Parra, Artemio
A1 Pulgarín Gámiz, Miguel Ángel
A1 Alvarado Celestino, Ernesto
A1 González Cabán, Armando
A1 Arellano Pérez, Stéfano
A1 Álvarez González, Juan Gabriel
A1 Ruiz González, Ana Daría
A1 Jolly, William Mathew
K1 Aboveground biomass
K1 Ecoregions
K1 Fire occurrence
AB Understanding the spatial patterns of fire occurrence is key for improved forest fires management, particularly under global change scenarios. Very few studies have attempted to relate satellite-based aboveground biomass maps of moderate spatial resolution to spatial fire occurrence under a variety of climatic and vegetation conditions. This study focuses on  modeling and mapping fire occurrence based on fire suppression data from 2005–2015 from aboveground biomass—expressed as aboveground carbon density (AGCD)—for the main ecoregions in Mexico. Our results showed that at each ecoregion, unimodal or humped relationships were found between AGCD and fire occurrence, which might be explained by varying constraints of fuel and climate limitation to fire activity. Weibull equations successfully fitted the fire occurrence distributions from AGCD, with the lowest fit for the desert shrub-dominated north region that had the lowest number of observed fires. The models for predicting fire occurrence from AGCD were significantly different by region, with the exception of the temperate forest in the northwest and northeast regions that could be modeled with a single Weibull model. Our results suggest that AGCD could be used to estimate spatial fire occurrence maps; those estimates could be integrated into operational GIS tools for assistance in fire danger mapping and fire and fuel management decision-making. Further investigation of anthropogenic drivers of fire occurrence and fuel characteristics should be considered for improving the operational spatial planning of fire management. The modeling strategy presented here could be replicated in other countries or regions, based on remote-sensed measurements of aboveground biomass and fire activity or fire suppression records.
PB MDPI
YR 2019
FD 2019
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10347/21133
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10347/21133
LA eng
NO Briones-Herrera, C.I.; Vega-Nieva, D.J.; Monjarás-Vega, N.A.; Flores-Medina, F.; Lopez-Serrano, P.M.; Corral-Rivas, J.J.; Carrillo-Parra, A.; Pulgarin-Gámiz, M.Á.; Alvarado-Celestino, E.; González-Cabán, A.; Arellano-Pérez, S.; Álvarez-González, J.G.; Ruiz-González, A.D.; Jolly, W.M. Modeling and Mapping Forest Fire Occurrence from Aboveground Carbon Density in Mexico. Forests 2019, 10, 402
NO Funding for this work was provided by CONAFOR/CONACYT Projects “CO2-2014-3-252620” and “CO-2018-2-A3-S-131553” for the development and enhancement of a Forest Fire Danger Prediction System for Mexico. The scholarships from CONACYT for Carlos Briones to study a Masters program in Forest Sciences at the Universidad Juarez del Estado de Durango and to fund a research stay at the University of Santiago de Compostela (Spain) is also acknowledged.
DS Minerva
RD 24 abr 2026