RT Journal Article
T1 Assessing the risk of pandemic outbreaks across municipalities with mathematical descriptors based on age and mobility restrictions
A1 Carballosa Calleja, Alejandro
A1 Balsa Barreiro, José
A1 Boullosa González, Pablo
A1 Garea Espejo, Adrián
A1 Mira Pérez, Jorge
A1 Miramontes Carballada, Ángel
A1 Pérez Muñuzuri, Alberto
K1 SEIR pandemic model
K1 Risk factors
K1 Confinement scenarios
K1 Linear stability/growth factors
K1 Multilayer network with mobility and geographical data
AB By March 14th 2022, Spain is suffering the sixth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. All the previous waves have been intimately related to the degree of imposed mobility restrictions and its consequent release. Certain factors explain the incidence of the virus across regions revealing the weak locations that probably require some medical reinforcements. The most relevant ones relate with mobility restrictions by age and administrative competence, i.e., spatial constrains. In this work, we aim to find a mathematical descriptor that could identify the critical communities that are more likely to suffer pandemic outbreaks and, at the same time, to estimate the impact of different mobility restrictions. We analyze the incidence of the virus in combination with mobility flows during the so-called second wave (roughly from August 1st to November 30th, 2020) using a SEIR compartmental model. After that, we derive a mathematical descriptor based on linear stability theory that quantifies the potential impact of becoming a hotspot. Once the model is validated, we consider different confinement scenarios and containment protocols aimed to control the virus spreading. The main findings from our simulations suggest that the confinement of the economically non-active individuals may result in a significant reduction of risk, whose effects are equivalent to the confinement of the total population. This study is conducted across the totality of municipalities in Spain
PB Elsevier
YR 2022
FD 2022
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10347/29920
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10347/29920
LA eng
NO Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 160 (2022) 112156
DS Minerva
RD 24 abr 2026