RT Journal Article
T1 Forecasting variations in profitability and silviculture under climate change of radiata pine plantations through differentiable optimization
A1 González Rodríguez, Miguel Ángel
A1 Vázquez Méndez, Miguel Ernesto
A1 Diéguez Aranda, Ulises
K1 Differentiable optimization
K1 Pinus radiata
K1 Stand-level management
K1 Climate change
K1 Risk modelling
AB Climate change might entail significant alterations in future forest productivity, profitability and management. In this work, we estimated the financial profitability (Soil Expectation Value, SEV) of a set of radiata pine plantations in the northwest of Spain under climate change. We optimized silvicultural interventions using a differentiable approach and projected future productivity using a machine learning model basing on the climatic predictions of 11 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The forecasted mean SEV for future climate was lower than current SEV (∼22% lower for RCP 4.5 and ∼29% for RCP 6.0, with interest rate = 3%). The dispersion of the future SEV distribution was very high, alternatively forecasting increases and decreases in profitability under climate change depending on the chosen GCM. Silvicultural optimization considering future productivity projections effectively mitigated the potential economic losses due to climate change; however, its ability to perform this mitigation was strongly dependent on interest rates. We conclude that the financial profitability of radiata pine plantations in this region might be significantly reduced under climate change, though further research is necessary for clearing the uncertainties regarding the high dispersion of profitability projections
PB MDPI
SN 1999-4907
YR 2021
FD 2021
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10347/27243
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10347/27243
LA eng
NO Forests 2021, 12(7), 899; https://doi.org/10.3390/f12070899
DS Minerva
RD 22 abr 2026