RT Journal Article
T1 Prediction of biological sensors appearance with ARIMA models as a tool for Integrated Pest Management protocols
A1 Fernández González, María
A1 Ramos Valcárcel, David
A1 Aira Rodríguez, María Jesús
A1 Rodríguez Rajo, Francisco Javier
K1 Agronomy
K1 ARIMA
K1 Integrated pest management
K1 Phytopatology
K1 Plasmopara viticola
K1 Uncinula necator
AB Introduction and objectives:Powdery mildew caused by Uncinula necator and Downy mildew produced by Plasmopara viticola are the most common diseases in the North-West Spain vineyards. Knowledge of airborne spore concentrations could be a useful tool in the Integrated Pest Management protocols in order to reduce the number of pesticide treatments, applied only when there is a real risk of infection.Material and Methods:The study was carried out in a vineyard of the D. O. Ribeiro, in the North-West Spain, during the grapevine active period 2004–2012. A Hirts-type volumetric spore-trap was used for the aerobiological monitoring.Results:During the study period the annual total U. necator spores amount ranged from the 578 spores registered in 2007 to the 4,145 spores sampled during 2008. The highest annual total P. viticola spores quantity was observed in 2010 (1,548 spores) and the lowest in 2005 (210 spores). In order to forecast the concentration of fungal spores, ARIMA models were elaborated.Conclusions:The most accurate models were an ARIMA (3.1.3) for U. necator and (1.0.3) for P. viticola. The possibility to forecast the spore presence 72 hours in advance open an important horizon for optimizing the organization of the harvest processes in the vineyard
PB Institute of Rural Health in Lublin, Poland
SN 1232-1966
YR 2016
FD 2016
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10347/15921
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10347/15921
LA eng
NO Fernández-González M, Ramos-Valcárcel D, Jesús Aira M, Rodríguez-Rajo FJ. Prediction of biological sensors appearance with ARIMA models as a tool for Integrated Pest Management protocols. Ann Agric Environ Med. 2016; 23(1): 129–137. doi: 10.5604/12321966.1196868
NO The study was financed by the Proyects INOU12-08 of the University of Vigo and the AGL2014-60412-R supported by the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of the Spanish Government
DS Minerva
RD 28 abr 2026