RT Journal Article T1 Chronicle of an early demise, surname extinction in the fifteenth and the seventeenth centuries A1 Jordà, Joan Pau A1 Ameijeiras Alonso, José A1 Pujadas Mora, Joana Maria K1 Barcelona K1 Branching process K1 Catalonia K1 Early modern period K1 Llibres d'esposalles (marriage books) K1 Onomastics AB It has been amply demonstrated that individuals' reproductive capability is the key explanatory phenomenon for understanding onomastic disappearance during the early modern period. This article analyzes the evolution and consequences of surname extinction in a specific population: Catalonia in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. In this article two aspects are examined. First, the observed disappearance of surnames is estimated through historical data collected in the Llibres d'Esposalles (Marriage Books) from 1481 to 1600 at Barcelona Cathedral. Second, the estimated natural extinction of those surnames registered in 1481 is forecast by applying a statistical branching process PB Taylor & Francis SN 0161-5440 YR 2018 FD 2018 LK http://hdl.handle.net/10347/18673 UL http://hdl.handle.net/10347/18673 LA eng NO Jordà, J., Ameijeiras-Alonso, J., & Pujadas-Mora, J. (2018). Chronicle of an early demise, surname extinction in the fifteenth and the seventeenth centuries. Historical Methods: A Journal Of Quantitative And Interdisciplinary History, 51(3), 190-201. doi: 10.1080/01615440.2018.1462747 NO This is the Author’s Original Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History on 2018, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/01615440.2018.1462747 NO Research has been funded by Projects MTM2016-76969-P (Spanish State Research Agency, AEI) and MTM2013-41383-P (Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness), both co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), IAP network from Belgian Science Policy. Work of J. Ameijeiras-Alonso has been supported by the Ph.D. Grant BES-2014-071006 from the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness DS Minerva RD 29 abr 2026