RT Journal Article T1 Vulnerability to climate change for two endemic high-elevation, low-dispersive Annitella species (Trichoptera) in Sierra Nevada, the southernmost high mountain in Europe A1 Múrria, Cesc A1 Sáinz Bariáin, Marta A1 Vogler, Alfried P. A1 Viza, Aida A1 González González, Marcos A1 Zamora-Muñoz, Carmen K1 Caddisfly K1 global warming K1 Iberian Peninsula K1 intraspecific diversity K1 Limnephilidae K1 phylogeography K1 SDM, K1 stream ecology AB Climate change is predicted to progressively shift habitat characteristics that will alter the distribution and eco-physiological responses of organisms. High-elevation stream insects without extensive dispersal are expected to be highly vulnerable if they are unable to track predicted shifts. Understanding dispersal is therefore crucial to implement practical solutions in conservation.The evolutionary history of the Palaearctic genus Annitella (Trichoptera), the population dynamics and habitat distribution (present and future) of two endemic species (A. esparraguera and A. iglesiasi) confined to Baetic Mountains (SE-Iberian Peninsula) were assessed to gain fundamental insights into species responses to climate warming and to identify populations at risk.Diversification of Annitella was dated to the Pleistocene and was likely associated with southern and extra-Mediterranean refugia located across Europe. The two endemic species belong to distant lineages that preferred similar cold headwater pristine habitats. The range of A. esparraguera was larger than that of A. iglesiasi. Both species showed low genetic diversity in cox1, but only A. esparraguera exhibit locally unique haplotypes, indicating limited gene flow. For A. esparraguera, modelled future habitat suitability showed 88.4% range contraction by 2050 (RCP scenario 8.5) and a displacement of 41.5% of the current potential distribution to higher elevations.Populations of A. esparraguera are predicted to be lost because of the reduction of optimal habitat and limited propensity for tracking future suitable conditions. Beyond the preservation of their current habitat, their conservation might require proactive measures (translocations). Similar predictions may apply to other Mediterranean endemic headwater specialist restricted to isolated high-elevation streams. PB Royal Entomological Society YR 2019 FD 2019-11-04 LK http://hdl.handle.net/10347/32603 UL http://hdl.handle.net/10347/32603 LA eng NO Múrria, C., Sáinz-Bariáin, M., Vogler, A.P., Viza, A., González, M. and Zamora-Muñoz, C. (2020), Vulnerability to climate change for two endemic high-elevation, low-dispersive Annitella species (Trichoptera) in Sierra Nevada, the southernmost high mountain in Europe. Insect Conserv Divers, 13: 283-295. https://doi.org/10.1111/icad.12387 NO This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Múrria, C., Sáinz-Bariáin, M., Vogler, A.P., Viza, A., González, M. and Zamora-Muñoz, C. (2020), Vulnerability to climate change for two endemic high-elevation, low-dispersive Annitella species (Trichoptera) in Sierra Nevada, the southernmost high mountain in Europe. Insect Conserv Divers, 13: 283-295, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/icad.12387. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited. NO This research received support from the project ref. 039/2007 funded by the Organismo Autónomo de Parques Nacionales of the Spanish Ministerio de Agricultura, Alimentación y Medio Ambiente, and by the project of the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación CGL2007- 61856/BOS. Sierra Nevada National Park and Andalusian Government supplied logistic help and sampling permissions. We are very grateful to John E. Brittain, AlejandraFernández, Modesto Berbel, János Oláh and all the people who helped us during the field work, and to Anna Papadopoulou and Miquel A. Arnedo for help with phylogenetic analyses. Alain Dohet, Ana Foresight, Bronislaw Szczesny, Ivan Vučković, János Oláh, Jesús Martínez, José Manuel Tierno de Figueroa, Núria Bonada and Miklos Bálint provided specimens for molecular analyses. We thank Núria Bonada for comments that improved themanuscript. CM was supported by a Beatriu de Pinós postdoctoral fellowship (BP-DGR-2011) from Agència de Gestió d’Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca, Catalunya, and MSB was supported by two predoctoral fellowships from Gobierno de Navarra and the Research Council of Norway (Program: Yggdrasil). DS Minerva RD 26 abr 2026