RT Journal Article
T1 Non-parametric comparative analysis of the spatiotemporal pattern of human-caused and natural wildfires in Galicia
A1 Marey Pérez, Manuel
A1 Fuentes-Santos, Isabel
A1 Saavedra Nieves, Paula
A1 González Manteiga, Wenceslao
K1 Inhomogeneous point processes
K1 Intensity function
K1 Non-parametric inference
K1 Smooth bootstrap
K1 Spain wildfire
K1 Spatiotemporal interactions
K1 Wildfire hazard
AB Background. Wildfire is a major environmental threat worldwide and climate change is expected to increase its severity. Galicia has suffered high wildfire incidence during the last decades, most wildfires being from arson, in contrast with the low rate of natural wildfires. Aim. This work aims to characterise the spatiotemporal dynamics of human-caused and natural fires in Galicia. Methods. We apply first- and second-order non-parametric inference to spatiotemporal wildfire point patterns. Key results. The distribution of natural wildfires remained stable over years, with high incidence in summer and in the eastern area of Galicia. Arson wildfires had aggregated patterns, with strong interaction between outbreaks and fires, and their distribution varied both over and within years, with high incidence shifting between the southern and western areas, and high hazard in early spring and late summer. Negligence wildfire patterns showed short-distance aggregation, but large-distance aggregation between outbreaks and fires; their spatial distribution also varied between and within years. Conclusions. Different models and covariates are required to predict the hazard from each wildfire type. Natural fires are linked to meteorological and environmental factors, whereas socioeconomic covariates are crucial in human-caused wildfires. Implications. These results are the basis for the future development of predictive spatiotemporal point process models for human-caused wildfires.
PB CSIRO Publishing
YR 2022
FD 2022
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10347/33491
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10347/33491
LA eng
NO Marey-Pérez, M. F., Fuentes-Santos, I., Saavera-Nieves, P., & González-Manteiga, W. (2023). Non-parametric comparative analysis of the spatiotemporal pattern of human-caused and natural wildfires in Galicia. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 32(2), 178-194
NO This work was supported by Projects MTM2016-76969-P and PID2020-116587GB-I00 (AEI/FEDER, UE), and projects IN607B: Modalidad B – Grupos con potencial crecemento, GPC GI-1716 PROXECTOS E PLANIFICACIÓN (PROEPLA), 2018-PG078 (Ref. ED431B 2018/23) from the Galician Government (Xunta de Galicia).
DS Minerva
RD 6 jun 2026