RT Journal Article
T1 Potential hydrologic changes in the Amazon by the end of the 21st century and the groundwater buffer
A1 Pokhrel, Yadu N.
A1 Fan, Ying
A1 Míguez Macho, Gonzalo
K1 Amazon rainforest
K1 IPCC climate change
K1 Evapotranspiration
K1 Moisture stress
K1 Modeling
K1 Groundwater buffer
K1 Ecosystem resilience
AB This study contributes to the discussions on the future of the Amazon rainforest under aprojected warmer-drier climate from the perspectives of land hydrology. Using IPCCHadGEM2-ES simulations of the present and future Amazon climate to drive a land hydrologymodel that accounts for groundwater constraint on land drainage, we assess potential hydrologicchanges in soil water, evapotranspiration (ET), water table depth, and river discharge, assumingunchanged vegetation. We ask: how will ET regimes shift at the end of the 21st century, and willthe groundwater help buffer the anticipated water stress in some places-times? We conductedfour 10 yr model simulations, at the end of 20th and 21st century, with and without thegroundwater. Our model results suggest that, first, over the western and central Amazon, ET willincrease due to increased potential evapotranspiration (PET) with warmer temperatures, despite adecrease in soil water; that is, ET will remain PET or atmospheric demand-limited. Second, inthe eastern Amazon dry season, ET will decrease in response to decreasing soil water, despiteincreasing PET demand; that is, ET in these regions-seasons will remain or become more soilwater or supply-limited. Third, the area of water-limited regions will likely expand in the easternAmazonia, with the dry season, as indicated by soil water store, even drier and longer. Fourth,river discharge will be significantly reduced over the entire Amazon but particularly so in thesoutheastern Amazon. By contrasting model results with and without the groundwater, we foundthat the slow soil drainage constrained by shallow groundwater can buffer soil water stress,particularly in southeastern Amazon dry season. Our model suggests that, if groundwaterbuffering effect is accounted for, the future Amazon water stress may be less than that projectedby most climate models
PB IOP Publishing
SN 1748-9326
YR 2014
FD 2014
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10347/21376
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10347/21376
LA eng
NO Pokhrel, Y., Fan, Y. and Miguez-Macho, G., 2014. Potential hydrologic changes in the Amazon by the end of the 21st century and the groundwater buffer. Environmental Research Letters, 9(8), 084004
NO Funding comes from NSF (NSF-AGS-1045110), US EPA (EPA-STAR-RD834190) and the European Commission FP7 (EartH2Observe). Computation used the NCAR's Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, sponsored by NSF and other agencies
DS Minerva
RD 26 abr 2026