Validation of an AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average model for the prediction of animal zone temperature in a weaned piglet building

Abstract

An AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average model was validated for the prediction of temperatures in the animal zone of conventional weaned piglet barn. The validation period covered seven cycles and recorded values at 10-min intervals for 292 days. Average weight was 5.75 ± 0.86 kg at the beginning of the production cycle and 18.41 ± 2.12 kg at the end of the cycle. Mean outdoor air temperatures ranged 6.14 to 17.85 °C with deviations in the range 2.49 °C to 5.24 °C, which involved marked differences in the operation of the ventilation system. The Mean Average Percentage Error was below 4%, with a mean error of ≤1 °C. The Root Mean Square Error was in the range 0.77 °C to 1.19 °C, whereas the coefficient of determination ranged between 0.52 and 0.81. Despite the changes in environmental conditions and in animal weight and management, the accuracy of the model remained stable with low dispersion of values. The model showed good accuracy and reliability covering all the seasons under changing meteorological conditions because it considered the operation of the heating and ventilation systems and changes in animal weight. The residuals obtained from the validation of the seven production cycles were Gaussian distributed, which confirmed the validity of the model. The generated model can be used for more effective environmental control systems that are capable of anticipating events and show a better response, which helps improve energy savings and animal welfare