Evaluation of the spatio-temporal future effects of climate change on the European dairy sector

Abstract

Climate change is already affecting and will continue to affect European dairy farms, the most climate-vulnerable stage in them dairy value chains. Climate hazards and their biophysical impacts are expected to modify dairy farms' environmental performance unevenly across regions and climate scenarios by 2050. The integration of tools and methodologies, such as Life Cycle Assessment, Risk Assessment, and Input-Ouutput tables, is crucial to address this challenge. Thus, a toolbox is developed and tested in this research to provide an in-depth analysis of the biophysical impacts that climate hazards pose to the environmental performance of the sector. This research is a stepping stone in providing a scientific basis to the European dairy sector, so it can support decision-making to begin building adaptative capacity.